Jamie

Less than a month ago, Goldman Sachs downgraded Harley (HOG US) by adding it to its "conviction sell" (sic) list based on a "near-term downside on retails sales". Goldman's 6-month price estimate is $23.00 a share. The stock closed @ $25.53 a share last Friday.

Harley's Q4 '09 results are due on Jan. 22, 2010. Worth going through, particularly the management's take (if any) on its own performance and its near-term outlook, I suggest.

(One could obviously retort that Goldman Sachs itself is hardly a model of financial acumen )

Jamie

Speedtrip

Harley suffered the same problems as the real estate market. Very lenient lending practices combined with people buying more bike than they could afford. A recipe for disaster when the real estate bubble burst.

The Prophet

And.... there are a ton of empty, bargain priced "McMansions" around here (North/Central Illinois) anyway, going for half price, but still no takers. On the opposite end, low (read affordable to new buyers) priced entry level townhomes and duplexes are thriving. You would imagine someone putting two and two together.

On another note, today's Chicago Tribune (10.Jan.2010) Newspaper ran a big article on the wonderful new "Indian" motorcycle company, lots of words, but as so often happens, no mention whatsoever about the total # of Sales. By the way, the author beems about the "fantastic performance", and mucho "power" of the bike. Credibility Rating: Zero. Obviously a misinformed newbie to the bike industry.

This tells me overall Sales are bad. If Sales were great - or even moderate - they'd certainly want the public to know.

That said... are these CEO's morons? Or is it ego? I'd guess ego, as it can effect correct decision making significantly. You'd be surprised how many organisations bite the dust because of some top persons out of control, overcompensative ego issue. "This is my Plan... and I'm sticking to it!"

All the way down the sewer.

You would also imagine that various people would be "peeking" over the fence to see what the other Motorcycle manufacturers are up to, especially those that are surviving... or even thriving in the current economic climate.

Many people call me idealistic.

Ride Safe!

Bob

__________________

• A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving. ~Lao Tzu
• Motorcyles are not my whole life, but they make my life whole. ` me

motowebmaster

So if were your dealer, and you wanted the shortest path to a fully-custom HOG:

• $24k for a 2010 Ultra Limited
• $3k for custom paint
• $2k for stereo upgrades, $3k if you wanted Harmon-Kardon
• $8k for various accessories replacements
• $3k for added electronics
• $4k for additional body parts
• $1k for labor

That would setchyaback roughly $45k, or you could just throw a leg over this here 2010 CVO Ultra Classic with everything you wanted and more and save the $10k for family - would you do it?

The Prophet

Or... you could not buy anything and save a whopping $35,000 for the family!

No way in the world that I would ever pay $35-40 K for one single bike. I would much rather have two or three different style bikes - One for performance and speed, one for long range touring, one for Backroads fun, at that budget. I also selfishly suggest (idealistically?) that riding around on a $35,000 motorcycle is somehow the exact reverse of what riding is (was?) supposed to be all about. I'll eat that statement I'm sure, as it's old school thinking, but my opinion nonetheless. Time was, it used to be all about a bunch of good folks getting together to enjoy the outdoors, and have some fun, beyond the restrictions of conventional society, class structure, "mine's better than yours" style thinking. Still is in my book.

I opine that everyone has different tastes, different viewpoints/perspectives, and different expectations of "feedback" from riding and/or the whole biking experience.

In my personal opinion, none of this "stuff" - custom paint, stereo's, body parts, chrome bling, etc., has anything to do with riding, but more with appearance, and personal comfort / convenience (stereo, cushy seats, communication/electronics).

That said, all that stuff is a personal choice thing, and so be it. If a guy wants all that extra equipment on his bike, fine, go for it. But I suggest don't for a moment deride anyone, or squint down the proverbial nose at anyone who doesn't have it (as many do).

As I preach to my kids, every once in a while, we need to take a very deep breath, and learn to seperate "want" from "need", two entirely different concepts. I "need" a bike to maintain sanity and control stress, seriously. The rest of the bling I clearly don't "need". Some of it - like Custom Paint maybe, I want, but on my personal "wish" list, it doesn't make the final cut.

Me? I find all this bling, wind fairing, and electronic stuff distracting to the fantastic feel of the outdoors, the sounds of nature, etc. If I really wanted them, I'd have 'em. If someone else wants 'em, go for it! I'd be very dissapointed if my double de-caf cappiachino spilled out of my chrome plated cupholder complete with electronic heating while leaning hard through the twisties though! Oh my!

At the extreme, what is the difference between a three wheeler with full fairing, surround sound stereo, heater, cup holders, and full cushy seats.... and a convertable cage?

Nadda.

Ride Safe (an unencumbered)!

Bob

Jamie

Please don't tease:

1. A fish out of water (MCN)
2. A sad cry for attention (another brit mag)
3. Impressive (eindrucksvoll) on all accounts... except for engine power, road holding... and, ultimately for... value for money? (in english, in a German mag)
4. Providing virtually all touring amenities on board, with the exception of A/C (a sarcastic French mag )
5. A different riding philosophy ? (an embarrassed Italian mag, upon realizing that the Harley luxo-barge loaner had miserably failed on most of its usual comparo criteria , apart from "style" or "image")
6. Timeless style (...) the long road to nowhere (...) . (HD's own, late 2008 press release about the 2009 "Touring" line. Authentic. I have just cleaned up the copious, surrounding hype)
7. "The most expensive way to turn gasoline into noise, without the inconvenience of power " (a -brilliant- R3Owners contributor)
8. An "insolent charriot" (no less brilliant poet John Keats, writing about parade coaches)

After Eight? Feel free

Jamie

Speedtrip

Thats freakin' hilarious! We must be really working overtime when the Keats quotes come out.

The Prophet

I suggest that the quickest, and most efficient way to ruin a sport, a hobby, an interest, or a past-time is to inject it with elitism, and jack up the price of participation. Once this has been done, the end is just a matter of when, not “if”.

Motorcycling should be for the masses, and most definitely for the “Average Joe” to enjoy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_Joe

When “Average Joe” can no longer afford a particular activity, things change. Now we travel into the arena of elitism, one-upmanship, self-indulgence, and decadence.

Look at most Professional Sports, the salaries demanded, and the Ticket prices. Can “Average Joe” attend with his wife and three kids? Are there any current stars in sports that could compare with say, Joe Dimaggio? Lou Gehrig? Sandy Koufax? Not without steroids anyway. Why are folks so willing to pay sometimes over $100 a ticket to watch mediocracy? More often, the seats are corporate owned, and no one attending has a clue about what is happening on the field. It’s an “event”. Cue the Miller High-Life guy! I love to watch the fantastic Ken Burns documentaries on “Baseball” which - if you are an avid fan – will bring tears to your eyes comparing “then”, and the present day. Same goes with motorcycling.

Muscle cars that cost $3,800 new back in the 1960’s, and were nothing more than cheap entry level car bodies equipped with big-cube motors, crappy suspensions, bad tires, bad brakes, and rust-prone bodies and frames that now go for 2-3 $million at auctions for collectors who will never, ever drive them. Same scenario in uber-priced motorcycles.

The Mortgage scandal hopefully taught everyone that we ALL cannot afford +4500 square foot homes in the ‘burbs, never to trust a mortgage company, a bank, or a real estate agent, and what the results are if everyone tries to “upgrade” at the same time, regardless of income. Segway this into the Harley upscale crap. Trouble is brewing with this stuff.

Now we have the iconic, historic Harley Davidson Company jumping firmly on the “elitism” RUB, bandwagon, and offering bikes costing more than “Average Joe’s” annual salary. What happened to “American Iron”? Freedom of the Road”(for those with the cash!), “Brother bikers!” (Well, maybe my rich brother anyway!).

Harley also had a very big hand in visualizing the Sportster as a “Womens Bike”, or a “Newbie” Bike, so that now comes back to bite them big time. No one wants one.

I suggest: Build and offer a solid bike that “Average Joe” can truthfully and pragmatically afford, and you’ll sell a million of them (see “Triumph”). Build a bike that only about 10% of the population can afford, and understanding that roughly 0.05% of that 10% are motorcyclists, and you’ll have what you have right now… desperately low sales… and dropping.

What goes around… comes around.

Ride Safe!

Bob

Two quick Questions:

1.) Is there a place on this bike where I can store my Sitar?
2.) Will my Sari get caught up in the belt drive?

Oooooooooohhhhmmmm.....

Jamie

Dear Mister PROPHET, Sir,

1.) Our new-for-1953 full-dresser (one of the 12 models earmarked for our Indian strategy) has, amongst numerous other "features and benefits", a trunk cavernous enough to carry a starving infant to the nearby holy gutter. Your ... er... guitar should thus pose no problem. Granted, the neck (the guitar's, not the child's) might occasionally pop out (Indian mahogany resisting extinction?). If so, our Service Department would suggest a fingerboard strung with lower tension strings. In any event, we have a whole line of CVO sissy bars to hang it to.

2.) Nothing can be precluded, whilst we shall reserve the right to regretfully attribute such an unlikely occurence --and thus an even more unlikely albeit potentially extravagant claim of yours-- to user abuse. Please note that cross-dressing on your part may not be seen as an extenuating circumstance, particularly NOT before an Indian court.

Incidentally, our Legal Department's view is that you'll eventually be sari.

With level best regards.

(HD newly-appointed Injun customer relationship Director)

The Prophet

To whom it may concern,

Thank you for your prompt and selectively courteous reply concerning safe storage for my sitar whilst cruising the local bar scene. I particularly am intersted in your idea of a sissy bar. We have these aplenty here in India.

With regards to safe traveling whilst crusing in my Sari, my understanding was that this Forum was a "don't ask, don't tell" scenario, and this also ties in nicely with visiting the aforementioned local Sissy Bar scene.

In the end, I may be better off from a safety perspective wearing my trusty Dhoti, although this particular attire does not provide the ATGATT suggested mantra as well as the attractive western garb. It does, however, provide ample freedom of movement, also very handy for these "bar hopping" scenes.

With all due (and past due) respect,

I trustfully remain,

Bob