Well, today - Feb19th, the stock is at $11.35, the lowest in 5 years at least. It did jump to $14.00 a few days ago, but now it's back down once again, and the continual graphical pattern downward looks very predictable.
HD is not gonna fold, that's for sure, but they WILL go through some suffering due to previous complacency. The highest I can find is at $70.00 at one point in 2006. Despiration needs to set in, then if they hit "rock bottom" and have a substantial shake-up... maybe.
Will it ever go back to $70/share? IMHO, I doubt it. We are not seeing anything different, new, revolutionary. To rely on an old name brand alone I'd say is a huge, huge risk nowadays, especially with the second hand bike market flooded, and discretionary purchases being curtailed for at least another year.
That said, I'd wait for a while, as the prediction would be a further slide. Look again in say three weeks.
Last minute note: Yesterday, I called a local Harley Dealer to see if I could get my Triumph Dyno'd - I've done a few minor tweaks this winter - They were listed in the "Dynajet" dyno locater.
Answer - "Nah, we only work on Harleys". Guess they don't need the business!
Warren Buffet in on HOG
