The Prophet

OK.

Stock value is currently down roughly $10.00 per share this year alone, and the graph line is obviously headed... downwards...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=HOG&&ShowChtBt=Refresh+Chart&D ateRangeForm=1&CP=0&PT=4&C9=0&ComparisonsForm=1&CE =0&DisplayForm=1&D4=1&D5=0&D3=0&ViewType=0&PeriodT ype=3


Sales are down significantly from 2008 and 2009 levels.
The "Strategy" has been to raise MSRP prices, and focus on the "Custom", top, high priced bikes, catering to the "wealthy" rider.

Now that this strategy has fizzled badly...

And although the new CEO is raking in $6.4 million per year...

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/03/14/ceo-takes-harley-davidson-for-a-ride/

The Assembly line workers are being asked to take a cut in pay... or else!!!


http://www.ydr.com/ci_15375386

All that said: Quite the Hypocrisy. "American Iron", Milwaukee Iron". Any connections or iconic references to the "American" motorcycle, etc., you can now toss disrespectfully in the trash. Lookout China, here comes a Harley factory!

"Freedom", "Family", "Brotherhood" and so on, all well known B.S. slogans, fed to the uninformed and naive for (formerly) profit.

Sounds like a strike may be in the making, or at the very least a severely downgraded morale status at the "Mecca" of bike making for so many riders.

Hmmm. $6.4 Million salary package? Let's assume the average Line Worker makes say $30.00 an hour. Mutiply that times 2080 work hours per year. That's $62,400 per year.

$6,400,000 divided by $62,400 = 102 workers that could be fully paid by the CEO's salary alone!

Now, consider the remainder of the H-D Top Managers, and what their total Pay Packets are worth. Now ask: How much money could be saved, and/or transferred to more productive means, by reducing or eliminating some of these ridiculous and decadent packages?

On HDTV, you'll find some great documentaries on how various bikes are made - Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha are perfect examples of high-tech, semi and fully automated, highly efficient manufacturing factories. You can also see Ducati and some other manufacturers that portray a single individual, smoke dangling from the lips, coffee cup always at hand, slowly, deliberately, and casually assembling a bike, at his own pace.

John Bloor's resurrection of Triumph, and how it was achieved, could be a great Case Study as well.

Some of the above examples are competitively priced, within reach of the average rider, fun, fast and reliable. The others are high-priced, trendy, out-of-reach for the average Joe, and tempermental. It doesn't take a genius to figure out right / wrong ways to assembly profitable, for the masses bikes.

What next for HD... a Bailout? Wait... let's get those Exec bonuses out first!

Ride safe!

Bob

__________________

• A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving. ~Lao Tzu
• Motorcyles are not my whole life, but they make my life whole. ` me

Jamie

Relax Bob... it's just a communication issue (they all say that nowadays, don't they?).

And the good news is that HD has just named (Ms) Joanne Bischmann "Vice-President, Communications".

As the official announcement suggests, there might be more to her being a fast tracker (she joined HD in 1990) than just her "leadership capabilities":

(q) "She served in a variety of positions" (unq)

(So spoke Kama Sutra )

To further tone down the Lady's elation about her promotion is this ... er... caveat following the inevitable mention of the importance of "communications" @ HD :

(q) "She will also retain responsibility for the meeting and travel functions of the organization" (unq)

(In yet another position to help, no doubt, at least do the dishes )

Jamie

The Prophet

Does posing for a corporate picture in a spiffy new "Motorcycle Jacket" qualify one as a "rider?

What exactly does a VP of "Communications" do? Speak? Listen? Get coffee and donuts?




Somehow, I'd have to venture that many Motorcycling manufacturers went "sideways" based heavily upon the ratio of riders / non-riders holding "positions" of importance. By the way, isn't poor management what put the original Indian Motocycle Company ... out of business. Same for the majority of the iconic British makes back in the 70's?

No particular, or singular issues with this woman, but the motorcycle industry direction and focus as a whole. If anyone doubts that there is a definite - and soon to be permanent - slowdown in the motorcycle market, and the immediate and 0 to 10 year sales forecast looks extremely bleak, then they shouldn't be in the motorcycle business. Good news is: Plenty of room for these dilussionary types in the USA Real Estate "Expert" ranks.

Those few that will survive and prosper know:

Good Product
Good Price
Good After Sales Service.

Anything other than - or contrary to - this concept, or recipe for success, is pointless, and negative. You can raise MSRP prices, sell off whatever assets possible to raise temporary survival cash, push huge margin accessories off on lame - but also temporary - posers, but for how long. Sooner or later, the illusion, and then the party... ends.

Joanne... let's talk. Have your people get a'hold of my people... we'll "do lunch".

But first, let's see ya' ride solo around the neighborhood on that there "Hawg".

Ride Safe (and "communicate" propery)!

Bob

EDITED Tuesday, June 29, 9:50 AM:

Re-reading my own post here, I need to be much less harsh on this poor gal. Please take my comments as good natured ribbing on her - personally, no harm intended.

On the other hand, please take my not so good natured comments on top HD Management, "New Age" (mis)management B.S. in general, the new concepts of "it's not OUR fault" (dis-ownership), and the direction HD and many other organisations are headed with "Game Show Host" CEO's replacing long term "hands-on" knowledgable, deserving folks.

Prediction from... The Prophet:

Ten years from now, a "New" management philosophy will unfold, replacing all the "celebrity" type disgraceful salary, golden/diamond parachute style managers with knowledgable, long standing, experienced managers developed within the organisation(s)

Sincere apologies to Ms. Joanne, I'm sure she's an O.K. gal from a personal , non-working standpoint, so please disregard any nasty stuff I wrote in that regard.

Ride Safe!

Bob

motowebmaster

I visited my local Harley Dealership this last weekend, just to see if the Buells were still there.

The Buells were gone, and so were any H-D tracker or standard variants. It was wall-to-wall cruisers. There weren't that many riders there (occasional rain that day) but they were very busy with the folks that were there.

I was definitely out-of-place in my Fieldsheer/SIDI/Cortech/Shoei gear. The uncomfortable feeling was magnified by a couple guys moving around the showroom floor who were noticeably handicapped on a former bike.

My mind went to the "Bobber" mode and attempted to polarize to any new or used bike that had the minimalist look. There were a few smaller Sportys, but they are all setup to serve a traditional rider. It seemed that regardless of size, every HD Model was well-built and engineered to take the rider a reasonable distance. There were no apehangers, iron crosses, or ladies pushing out body parts - just lots of motorcycles, eagles, and "the heritage".

The hype is still difficult to understand in today's times, but the three other shops I visited that day where nowhere near as fun - or the people as happy.

Our exterminator visited the house when I was packing up earlier this week; shared that he traded is CBR600RR for a Harley and was luvinit. He was at a point in his life where sportbikes didn't matter any longer.

I'm starting to hear more about new riders, or other converts, who sign away their hard-earned for a Harley-Davidson; which may be traced to the Motor Company's marketing strategy. Here at home, the billboards say "learn to ride", not much else.

__________________
Shawn
My Photos

The Prophet

It's a mystery to me. The Stock Reports, Quarterly Financial Reports, and various media sources report sales being seriously down, and paint a picture of a company deeply in trouble.

Yet, you go to the dealerships and you see a reasonable amount of customers speaking to salesmen, and the general atmosphere is that of... everythings O.K. Could it be that yes, the dealerships have a reasonable amount of visitors, and they DO sell a few high priced bikes, but it's not enough to remain solvent? Dunno...

I too - and I'm 100% serious here - am currently 90% there as far as placing an order for a Road King. Actually, most of the "pressure" is from the wife, who now enjoys going for long rides more than ever, but wants a more comfy seat and ride. How many guys out there can say that their wife is not only supporting, but growing increasingly impatient with the level of indecision and waiting? She has even gone to the HD website and done the "Build your Bike" thing. Hey! Who's in charge here?

My issues:

1.) Kawasaki Concourse - Nice, fastest of the lot, but to me... too top heavy, uncomfy passenger seat, generally "soul-less" overall.
2.) BMW - a little too pricey for me, once you've added all the accessories & stuff. Seat not as comfy as the HD. Luggage capacity small. Not too many dealers out there. Closest to me is about 70 miles away.
3.) Goldwing - too much bike. Might as well get a cage convertable, which I already have. Nice bike, and plenty of folks love 'em, but not for me.
4.) Triumph Thunderbird - beautiful Bike. Love it. But again not as comfortable a seat, and long term riding position, as on the HD. (Read my test-ride review here in the T-Bird Forum) I think Triumph will develop the T-Bird further into a genuine "off-the-shelf" Tourer over the next two years, but I cant wait.

What I want:

• Super Comfy passenger seat - the wife is still undergoing physical therapy, and receiving steroid shots in the lower spine for back and leg pain.
• Relaxed Highway Cruising - We want to go from Illinois to... wherever - Grand Canyon, Yellowstone, Smokey Mountains, Ozarks, etc. To get to these wonderful places, the reality is plenty of superslab concrete to cover first, so we want to do it in comfort. I'm talking ALL day ridin' here, so comfort is #1.
• Ability to carry a reasonable amount of luggage and stuff.
• Reliability - No issues here, most new bikes have this already
• Excellent Dealer network - this is more of a "dependence" thing, but it's nice to know a dealer is at least within reasonable reach (and distance) when you're on a roadtrip.
• Good, basic bike - I like the wind and noise, and smells, and other sensory experiences while riding, so I don't need a Stereo, DVD player, full wrap around fairing, speakers, cup holders, etc. I like bare-bones, thus the Road King choice.

Don't need:

• I'm all grown up now, so no need for loud pipes, skulls and crossbones, "bad-ass" acruements, or excessive Chrome doo-dads. Lot's of younger guys and newbie's havin' fun (I hope!) buying these things and role playing, so the industry doesn't need oldsters like me. Just need a good basic bike to get me to far away places.
• A bike with an uncomfortable (to me) "slanted forward" seating position ala "crotch-rocket" rides. My two son's have a Suzuki SV650 and a Honda CBR600R respectively, which I do ride very often (we switch and swap all the time for fun), they are an absolute gas to ride, but I'm just too old and rickety to last more than an hour on these. My fault, not the bikes, but there you have it.
• A second hand bike from a stranger. I've been involved in Internet Bike Forums for around 5 years now, motorcycles in general since I was 16, so that's... 42 years(!), and still am absolutely amazed at how much "mis-information" and generally bad advice is tossed around, then fully accepted, then touted as "fact" by the newbie and squid style masses. I wouldn't touch a modified bike these days with a hundred foot pole. That said, it has to be brand new.. untouched by modern age wrench-bender hands.

All that said, my hesitance, or indecision, is based upon on not knowing where the HD motor company is headed. Could I end up with a Chinese company owned bike? Will they go under? Will we see a replay of the AMF years? History tends to repeat itself. Will HD soon - if not already - be seen as a bike strictly for weekend warriors and RUB's? Not that I care about such things THAT much, but perspective is 50% of reality.

Anyway, my tirade is all about piss-poor management destroying yet another motorcycle manufacturing company. The more I see of "new-age" (mis) management styles being injected into the menu, the more I worry.

Ride safe!

Bob

Final Thought: Ya' gotta' wonder... what on earth did we do before "Vice Presidents of Communications" were invented?

As I recall... we talked to one another?

Just sayin'...

Jamie

That's condensed BS, quite frankly. The self-inflicted and thus the most disabling kind.

So...

... You get yarself that f***ing Road King right away and stop delegating/abdicating the decision to her "pressure"... or to "pros and cons" mag comparos... or to uncertainties surrounding Harley's financial sustainability

Yours. Jamie

Speedtrip

Bunch of dang closet Harley cases.

motowebmaster

If Bob's going to get an HD then I'd have to go shopping

Speedtrip

Give me a shout when you get it Shawn I want to be the first to get a pic.

I know you have been lusting after a Bobber for some time now..

The Prophet

YouTube - Talk Like a Pirate Day: The Five A's


Rrrriiiide Saaafe!

Bob