The Prophet

Harley is definitely bleeding badly, and the CEO "retires" (new wave bizniz-speak for getting canned).

Let's hope they can pull out of this with some strategic and focussed restructuring, total inventory clearance, massive cost cutting, and general old school business practices.

Stay away from the B.S, altered charts and graphs to illustrate how "well" you are doing despite the fact that you are going down the drain. Be smart, not clever.

Look at this dismal stock performance...

http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/HOG.aspx

Note that 0ne year ago it was at $48.05 a Share!

The huge showroom palaces around here are totally empty of Customers, there are a huge amount of second hand bikes available with super low mileage, but none of the dealers are willing to negotiate or offer bargains. All those '08's on your showroom floor are slowly but surely depreciating, and the price increase on the '09's will go down in history as one of those famous "what where they thinking" moves.

I sincerely hope the best for Harley, as they ARE an icon, they ARE basically good touring bikes - the big dressers that is, not the cruisers or nuevo choppers, and they HAVE made improvements in technology, if not image, in the past decade. If the price were reasonable, competitive, and attractive, I'd buy a Road King tomorrow, no B.S.!

What's the PLAN? Will the new Boss be the same as the old Boss? We'll see...

Speedtrip

Seems like HD has always had its ups and downs, depending on fads and fashion. They enjoyed popularity during the 50's & 60's then came into disfavor in the 70's probably from all the bad biker movies from the previous decade. All the biker mania of the 90's had everyone who could afford one playing weekend pirate.


HD will always have a very loyal group that will buy and actually ride their bikes no matter what. Around here it is generational granddad had one dad has one and when Jr gets old enough he will go out and get a Sportster. Now if this core group of customers can support all these HUGE dealerships they have built remains to be seen.


I think you will always have Harley, maybe not as profitable as it has been recently but never as bad as it got in the AMF days. Was there anyway to continue selling as many bikes as they had been selling? Kinda like the real estate market, you can only build so many homes before supply hits critical mass.

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-Shaun-

motowebmaster

The company's financial subsidiary, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, appears to be still quite active. I haven't been able to find information on whether they were able to secure the additional credit needed to cover 2009 sales activity.

This was interesting:

-- Riders purchasing 2008 or 2009 model year Sportster 883 or 1200 motorcycles (excluding XR1200) at a participating Harley-Davidson dealership between Dec. 26, 2008 and Mar. 31, 2009 can trade that Sportster in within one year to receive original MSRP on trade-in for qualifying Harley-Davidson Big Twin or VRSC motorcycles.


-- Riders trading in a 2007-2009 model year Sportster 883 or 1200 motorcycle at a participating Harley-Davidson dealership between Dec. 26, 2008 and Mar. 31, 2009 will receive the original MSRP on that Sportster toward the purchase of qualifying Harley-Davidson Big Twin or VRSC motorcycles.


For additional information on the offer, interested customers should visit a participating Harley-Davidson dealer or go to http://www.h-d.com/ridefree.

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Shawn
My Photos

SidecarFlip

That is a very interesting offer. It's also an offer that could, in fact, put HD in a precarious position if the economy continues to sour.

Maybe they should call the offer...Recycle your HD, be green.........

I think there are some safeguards built in, like base credit score. There is no way that HD (at least I don't believe HD would) make a finance offer to purchasers with less than good credit scores...something that has been steadily declining over the past year in light of unemployment and overleveraged credit cards.

That's where HD got in trouble in the pre-bubble economy, they sold bikes, on finance programs, to purchasers with less than good credit scores...and the purchasers defaulted and HD was stuck with a bunch of beat on bikes to resell.

One thing I'd really like to see come out of Obama's presidency is some meaningful credit card reform. The credit card companies are out of hand, way out of hand. I certainly have no problem with (them) making money on purchases but they make it every which way. They make a percentage from the seller, then from the buyer and if the buyer don't pay the balance in full, they incur a hefty finance charge. If I had a couple million in capital, I'd get in the plastic business. It's a very lucrative enterprise.

Bush conviently change the bankruptcy laws to favor the banks, while leaving the population to fend for itself. I don't condone bankruptcy as a way of absolving one from their debt...as the ads on TV claim for credit card relief....you bought the stuff, you should pay for it. It's the method that credit card companies use to determine their default rates, grace periods and billing cycles that allow people to fall in the cracks and then can't make their obligations and have no reasonable way out. It's a sad situation. Thank you Mr. Bush.

The Prophet

Here's yet another interesting offer - 50 shares of HOG stock when you buy a new Big twin!!

http://www.milwaukeeharley.com/

I assume the certificates are hand delivered by the two sultry lasses pictured, so best to clean up and shave beforehand!

motowebmaster

WhooHoo! A new bike, some inexpensive stock, and a few laughs with some twenty-somethings

We can't say that they aren't being creative. Selling existing inventory has been one of my hot-buttons. If Casinos can continue to draw crowds with free rooms and food, why not give away free stock with something that will cost less per month than what one would lose playing slots in a single night.

The Prophet

"NOW" can we negotiate a discount?

It appears things are perhaps not going so well. Disturbingly, I read recently that the HD "Plan" was to make the new bikes scarce, i.e., hard to find, waiting lists, etc. to peak the demand, and to create a shortage, and therefore a desire to possess a Harley.

Hmmm... some plan.

On the bright side, very often an organisation needs to hit rock bottom to see it's own folly. Let's hope that when/if this happens, HD survives, re-structures dramatically, and makes it through to reinvent itself.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...9_FORTUNE5.htm

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...cQgACmR4BjtKuw

motowebmaster

HOG stock closed today at $11.50.

To put things in perspective, it was lower than that during most of the 90s. From 86 to 96 it stayed in the 2-10 dollar range. If anyone owned it from then, and sold before the start of 2008, they would have done well.

The stock market isn't made up of motorcycle enthusiasts, so what we all knew was reflected in the loss of gains made since last November.

Obama needs to jump on a Road King and do a few spins around Penn Avenue for the Press.

SidecarFlip

.........lets not get into what Obama needs to do at this point. I'm pretty sure that motorcycles are alien to Obama, just as alien as the needs of the American people are. Obama, just like Bush and his predecessors, have an agenda and that agenda isn't about you and I.

HD is in trouble and most of it is their own doing, or undoing, whatever you prefer to call it. I read a rumor to the effect that HD is looking for a piece of the bailout money...whether it's true or not isn't important. What is important is that no entity needs that money that bad, HD, the banks, the automakers, nobody.

They all sank their own boats all by themselves, through mis management, greed and downright stupidity and now we should shackle our kids and their kids with the burden of paying the loan money back...It's tantamount to an installment loan that never ends.....It will be there long after the corporations that receive the money cease to exist. What a travesty.